Forecast by quarter on relationship progression, using stages defined by what the end customer has actually done: registered, qualified, engaged, quoted, and committed. Calculate your own conversion rates from two years of channel opportunity history, because borrowed benchmarks will mislead you. In a project-driven channel with a nine-month average cycle, a common pattern is that around 9 of every 100 registered opportunities close, which means registration volume is a leading indicator worth managing directly. Refuse to let opportunities age at one stage, because stale entries are the main reason channel forecasts get ignored.